The Truth About The Housing Market (It’s Worse Than You Think)

Higher mortgage rates shrink what a monthly budget can buy. This episode compares mortgage payments with income, examines the growing gap between home sellers and buyers, and argues that U.S. home prices are headed lower over the next year. Chapters: 00:00 Why home prices could fall 00:26 One house, two mortgage payments 00:52 How higher rates shrink buying power 01:21 Was housing cheaper in the 1990s? 02:20 Testing affordability against income 03:08 How falling rates pushed prices up 03:36 What happened to the top 10% of incomes 04:17 Seattle: high earners lose buying power 04:40 Tech layoffs and housing demand 05:22 Cash buyers and home equity 05:49 The three-percent mortgage lock-in 06:14 More sellers, fewer buyers 06:44 Inventory versus months of supply 07:12 Failed deals and asking-price cuts 07:35 Mortgage delinquencies versus 2010 08:04 Pandemic-era adjustable mortgages reset 08:48 How one lower sale affects a neighborhood 09:14 The home-price forecast The historical comparison includes median and upper-income households. The cross-time household example is illustrative. Principal-and-interest models exclude taxes, insurance and maintenance. The forward view is the narrator’s forecast. Sources: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms https://www.redfin.com/news/buyers-vs-sellers-august-2026/ https://www.redfin.com/news/press-releases/u-s-pending-home-sales-sink-near-12-year-low/ https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales https://www.redfin.com/news/all-cash-homebuyers-march-2026/ https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/income-poverty/historical-income-households.html https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc Chart data: Freddie Mac / FRED (MORTGAGE30US); S&P Dow Jones Indices / FRED (CSUSHPISA). https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA Stock footage: Jabriel, Kindel Media and Daniel Moore via Pexels. Footage illustrates housing; it does not identify listed properties or document a specific market. https://www.pexels.com/license/ Public post excerpts: https://x.com/barchart/status/2109448588418011208 https://x.com/loganmohtashami/status/2110011488488378733