Why Oil Prices Could Hit a Breaking Point by Year End | WSJ’s Take On the Week

In this episode of WSJ’s Take On the Week, co-host Telis Demos is joined by guest co-host and Wall Street Journal reporter David Uberti to break down the Federal Reserve’s latest moves, and what oil’s volatile pricing—exacerbated by the U.S.-Iran conflict—might mean for inflation and the Fed going forward. Then, BCA Research’s chief commodities strategist Roukaya Ibrahim joins the show to break down what’s behind oil’s volatile pricing. They discuss what current geopolitical tensions mean for oil and whether recent inventory data suggests a looming supply crunch. Plus, Ibrahim explains why the traditional link between gold and inflation has fractured, and how oil price shocks may impact the Fed. Chapters: 0:00 — Cold open: oil shocks 0:45 — Intro: oil, inflation, and the week ahead 1:42 — The Fed holds, but Warsh shakes markets 3:09 — CapEx, bond supply, and long-term rates 5:32 — Crude's wild swings and the Middle East 7:03 — The crack spread: gas and diesel stay high 8:06 — Roukaya Ibrahim: why oil can trade below $100 9:38 — Strait of Hormuz and new pipeline routes 11:23 — Inventories and where the rubber meets the road 16:02 — Supply: U.S. producers, OPEC, and the UAE exit 19:21 — Demand shift: electrification and consuming nations 21:38 — Why gasoline and diesel stayed elevated 24:31 — Russia, Ukraine attacks, and refined products 25:37 — Longer-term crack spread outlook 27:17 — Headline vs. core inflation 29:42 — Gold, real rates, and the dollar 33:44 — Core CPI explained This is WSJ’s Take On the Week where co-hosts Telis Demos, writer for WSJ’s Heard on the Street, and Miriam Gottfried, WSJ’s investing and wealth management reporter, cut through the noise and dive into markets, the economy and finance—the big trades, key players and business news ahead. Have an idea for a future guest or episode? How can we better help you take on the week? We’d love to hear from you. Email the show at takeontheweek@wsj.com. 🎧 Prefer just the audio version? Subscribe and listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, or wherever you get your podcasts: https://on.wsj.com/3LBGo5Q?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD #WSJ #OIL #INFLATION