Can the La Palma Megatsunami Hit New York?

Can a La Palma tsunami hit New York? The megatsunami from Cumbre Vieja, a volcano in the Canary Islands, is the story the films and headlines tell. Here is what the science now says, and who is actually in danger. CHAPTERS 0:00 Can the La Palma megatsunami hit New York? 0:16 Where the nightmare came from 1:10 The nightmare shrinks 2:10 Who is actually in danger THE FIGURES AND WHERE THEY COME FROM - The volcano: Cumbre Vieja forms the southern third of La Palma, Canary Islands, Spain. It erupted in 1949, when a fault opened near its crest, and in 1971 (Ward and Day 2001; USGS 2021). - The BBC documentary: Horizon, "Megatsunami: Wave of Destruction", broadcast in 2000 (McGuire 2021). - The 2001 paper: Ward and Day, Geophysical Research Letters 28(17), 3397-3400. Its worst case is one 500 km³ (120 cubic mile) block, 25 km long and 15 km wide (15.5 by 9.3 miles); its smaller case is 150 km³. In that model the waves could reach the coasts of the Americas at 10-25 m (33-82 ft) in the worst case. The paper does not mention New York; it names Florida. - A credible slide: Abadie et al. 2020 take 80 km³ (19 cubic miles) as "credible yet extreme", matching the deposits at the foot of the volcano; 500 / 80 = 6.25, about a sixth of the 2001 worst case. They add that a 450 km³ slide "remains possible". - In stages: past flank collapses in the Canaries often happened in stages, not all at once (USGS 2021; Krippner et al. 2026). - Waves spread out: waves from a landslide have short periods and lose height crossing an ocean (Gisler et al. 2006; USGS 2021; Krippner et al. 2026). - The US east coast: Tehranirad et al. 2015 modelled both slides. For 80 km³: under 2 m (6.6 ft) along the coast, an impact the authors still call "quite large in many locations". For 450 km³: 1-6 m (3-20 ft), under 3 m (9.8 ft) at most places. These are sea heights offshore in 5 m of water, not run-up on land. The USGS gives about 1-2 m (3-7 ft) for a "worst-case scenario", without naming the slide: "still hazardous, but similar to common storm surge". - New York: in Tehranirad et al. 2015 (the 450 km³ run, and wave paths set by the seabed) the Hudson Canyon bends the waves towards northern New Jersey and western Long Island, lessening the impact on New York harbour. Western Long Island includes Brooklyn and Queens. The paper still lists New York State, with North Carolina and Florida, among the places with the largest US impact. - "Refutes": the USGS wrote that the evidence "refutes the 'mega-tsunami' hypothesis" (Volcano Watch, 21 October 2021). - Who is in danger: in the 80 km³ case the first places hit are the other Canary Islands, Madeira, Cape Verde and West Africa, with waves over 5 m (16 ft) in Western Sahara and parts of Morocco; Guadeloupe lies "in the path of the maximum wave energy"; Portugal, western Spain and, to a lesser extent, the south coasts of Ireland and England are "significantly affected" (Abadie et al. 2020). - 2021: La Palma erupted for 85 days (19 September to 13 December 2021) and lava reached the sea, building new land (IGN; USGS 2021). The flank did not collapse (Krippner et al. 2026). - The volcanologist: Bill McGuire, whose team's work featured in the 2000 documentary, wrote in 2021 that a major tsunami-generating collapse is "perfectly possible - even probable", though "this could be 10, 30, or 50 eruptions down the line" (McGuire 2021). - Indonesia, 2018: Anak Krakatau collapsed into the Sunda Strait on 22 December 2018; the tsunami killed hundreds of people on the coasts of Java and Sumatra (USGS 2021; Syamsidik et al. 2020). - Netflix: the series "La Palma" was released in 2024 (Krippner et al. 2026). SOURCES Ward and Day 2001: doi.org/10.1029/2001GL013110 Tehranirad et al. 2015, Pure and Applied Geophysics 172: hal.science/hal-01763280 Abadie et al. 2020, NHESS 20: doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3019-2020 Gisler et al. 2006, Science of Tsunami Hazards 24(4), 288 Krippner et al. 2026, Journal of Applied Volcanology: doi.org/10.1186/s13617-026-00168-5 USGS Volcano Watch 2021: www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/news/volcano-watch-canary-islands-mega-tsunami-hypothesis-and-why-it-doesnt-carry McGuire 2021: billmcguire.substack.com/p/la-palmas-cumbre-vieja-eruption Syamsidik et al. 2020, NHESS 20: doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-549-2020 IGN Spain, "La erupción en cifras" MADE WITH AI The video clips, images and thumbnail are AI-generated (fal.ai: Kling 3.0 Pro for video; Nano Banana Pro and FLUX.2 Pro for images). They illustrate the story; they are not footage of real events. The scenes of New York under water show the version the films and headlines told, not a prediction. The narration is an AI voice (Cartesia). The maps are drawn from NASA Blue Marble imagery and Natural Earth data (public domain). Every figure comes from the sources above, not from AI. #lapalma #tsunami #volcano