Trump Threatens to DOUBLE Tariffs on Mexico Over Caravans

Nine days after Republicans lost both houses of Congress, Trump warned that tariffs on Mexico will be "IMMEDIATELY DOUBLED" unless it stops migrant caravans, and tied the caravans to what he called the "perceived loss" in the midterms. What he said, what is really on the road, what Mexico says back, and what we think it means. 0:00 "Immediately doubled": Trump's new target 0:38 What the post said 1:51 What's actually on the road 2:53 Mexico answers 3:57 Why he reaches for tariffs 4:58 What's different now 6:11 Our discussion ▬ THE NEWS ▬ • Thu., Nov. 12: in a Truth Social post that began "Here we go again!", Trump wrote that "with the perceived loss by the Republicans in the Midterms - I WAS NOT ON THE BALLOT" the "INVASION of our Country is taking place again," and that "MEXICO MUST STOP THEM, NOW, and if they do not do so, the Tariffs on Mexico will be IMMEDIATELY DOUBLED." He said "THE VERY LIBERAL NEW GOVERNOR OF TEXAS" had been informed, and ended: "There will be no leniency!" • The post did not say which tariffs would be doubled, under what legal authority, or when. • Texas' governor-elect is Democrat Gina Hinojosa, who beat Gov. Greg Abbott last week. • The caravan: on Tuesday a group left Tapachula, in southern Mexico near the Guatemala border. Reuters put it at about 1,500 people, mostly from Central America, many of them families; other counts run from about 1,000 to about 2,000. Some migrants told reporters they hoped the Democratic wins would mean softer U.S. border rules. Tapachula is more than 1,000 miles from the U.S.; Mexico broke up earlier caravans this fall. • Mexico's answer: at her Thursday briefing, President Claudia Sheinbaum said no migrant caravan has reached the U.S. border since Trump took office in January 2025. She said two groups are moving through southern Mexico; one that started with about 600 people has shrunk to around 100, and a group of Hondurans is being offered humanitarian help and a way home. She ruled out using force. • Border numbers: Border Patrol recorded 98,708 arrests at the southwest border in fiscal 2026 (Oct. 2025 to Sept. 2026), the lowest on record. DHS calls it a 95% drop from the Biden years. • The track record: in 2019 Trump threatened a 5% tariff on all Mexican goods, rising toward 25%, over migration; Mexico sent its National Guard to its borders and the tariff was never imposed. In February 2025 he announced 25% tariffs on Mexico and paused them two days later after Sheinbaum agreed to send 10,000 National Guard troops to the border. • What's different now: in February 2026 the Supreme Court ruled that the emergency-powers law (IEEPA) used for the 2025 tariffs does not authorize tariffs, striking them down. Mexican steel and aluminum still face 50% tariffs, and vehicles face steep duties while a USMCA review is under way. • Mexico is America's largest trading partner: about $873 billion in two-way goods trade in 2025, a record. ▬ OUR DISCUSSION ▬ This is Power Check's view. First, the president's side, because it deserves a fair hearing. Tariff threats have moved Mexico before. In 2019 and again in 2025, Mexico answered with troops. Crossings are at a record low, and Trump wants to keep them there. Some migrants did say the election gave them hope. And plenty of viewers put it simply: pressure gets results. Here's where we land. This threat is aimed at a problem that, by every number we have, is already under control. Border Patrol arrests are the lowest ever recorded. Mexico says no caravan has reached the U.S. border in almost two years. This one is 1,000+ miles away, and Mexico says it is shrinking. As one viewer asked: if the border is closed, what are we worried about? Then look at who pays: the American company bringing the goods in, and often the shopper. A week ago, about nine in ten voters told AP VoteCast the cost of living was a major factor, and about two in three said tariffs were hurting the economy. Doubling tariffs on our biggest trading partner is a strange answer to that message. And "perceived loss"? Democrats won the House, the Senate and the governor's office in Texas. That is not a perception. First it was "I was not on the ballot," then "was this election honest?", and now the defeat becomes the reason for an "invasion." Each version moves further from what voters actually said. What changes next: whether any tariff order follows, under what law; November border numbers; and a new Texas governor in January. We'll grant that pressure has bought cooperation before. But a threat with no tariff named, no law named and no date isn't a policy. It's uncertainty, aimed at the partner we trade with most. Should trade and border policy be tied together like this, or kept separate? Tell us in the comments. Photos: The White House; U.S. Customs and Border Protection. Public domain. Music: original score by Power Check Power Check · Daily politics · News & discussion #Trump #Mexico #Tariffs #News #Politics