"Don't Believe Opinion Polls!" - Michael Every on the Midterms, Trump's Strategy, Iran and US dollar

In this Reinvent Money episode, host Paul Buitink interviews Rabobank global strategist Michael Every on geopolitics, money, and power. Every argues a full-scale World War III is unlikely, as only the US can project large forces globally (and is occupied in the Middle East), while Europe is weak and China/Russia have limited reach—though proxy wars, economic conflicts, and serious disruptions are already rising. He critiques Fukuyama’s “End of History,” explaining the post-WWII liberal order stemmed from US military victories and the dollar system, which hollowed out American manufacturing and weakened its power base over time. The discussion covers nuclear deterrence enabling conventional escalation, the US abandoning outdated rules to reassert influence (including via the dollar), and the broader shift toward economic statecraft in a fragmenting world. Timestamps: 0:00 – Opening remarks: geopolitics, US rewriting rules, Iran, and the dollar 4:20 – Nuclear deterrence and how it enables conventional escalation 6:10 – Fukuyama’s End of History and the self-undermining liberal order 12:20 – China, the yuan, trade surpluses, and Europe’s late awakening 18:00 – Europe’s internal strains, EU expansion, and Ukraine strategy 26:00 – Trump as political realist and the Canada–EU discussion 33:30 – Americas strategy, Iran/Middle East instability, and midterms 39:30 – Dollar privilege, stablecoins as a new form of control, and closing thoughts on investor risk assessment