How Politics Destroys Armies: Politics, Factionalism & Russia's war in Ukraine

Sponsored by Private Internet Access: https://www.piavpn.com/Perun Description: Militaries, like any organisation, share a basic vulnerability - they're made up of people. And wherever there are people, there is an organisational culture. Culture can shape the way a military performs just as much as the capabilities of its weapons or the count of its personnel. Having all the tanks in the world only means so much if the system maintaining them is weakened by corruption and false reporting - factors we've explored before. But there's a third part of this story, the component that helps explain why systems adopt inefficient structures, struggle to coordinate or become filled with mutual distrust and self sabotage. Politics. Where the political interests of individuals deviate from the interests of the collective, bad things happen, and where leaders begin to put more focus on loyalty than on competence, then a system will never live up to its full potential. This episode serves as the third episode in the trilogy that began with "How corruption destroys armies" so I would advise watching those first if you have not already Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU Caveats & Comments: Under normal circumstances, Kremlin power games would not normally be played out in public - contests like those now being seen between Wagner and Shoigu for example that play out in public are relatively new phenomena. As a result, there is a recency bias in the examples used. Also note that as much of this topic is evidenced by competing, self-interested claims by various parties - examples should be considered illustrative or with low confidence levels. Further Reading: Information drawn from the Telegram channels of relevant figures - as a rule I do not directly link to content by these sources but relevant extracts are contained in this presentation. Drach's video on the IJA's Navy (recommended) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZ9AFbnY4To&t Russia’s defence reform Assessing the real ‘Serdyukov heritage https://ciaotest.cc.columbia.edu/pbei/fiia/0027951/f_0027951_22760.pdf Russia’s New PMC Patriot: https://jamestown.org/program/russias-new-pmc-patriot-the-kremlins-bid-for-a-greater-role-in-africa/ Russia’s (not so) Private Military Companies https://www.foi.se/rest-api/report/FOI%20MEMO%206653 Band of Brothers: The Wagner Group and the Russian State https://www.csis.org/blogs/post-soviet-post/band-brothers-wagner-group-and-russian-state The Russian Way of war armyupress.army.mil/portals/7/hot%20spots/documents/russia/2017-07-the-russian-way-of-war-grau-bartles.pdf The Best or Worst of Both Worlds? https://www.csis.org/blogs/post-soviet-post/best-or-worst-both-worlds Shoigu survives reshuffle https://jamestown.org/program/russias-defense-minister-sergei-shoigu-survives-government-reshuffle/ Shoigu sells Russias military success story https://icds.ee/en/defence-minister-shoigu-sells-russias-military-success-story/ https://theconversation.com/chechens-fighting-in-ukraine-putins-psychological-weapon-could-backfire-179447 Timestamps: 00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:42 — What Am I Talking About 00:02:47 — SPONSOR: PRIVATE INTERNET ACCESS 00:04:21 — POWER & INCENTIVES 00:04:33 — The Problem of Incentives 00:06:15 — System Self-Select & Perpetuate 00:08:34 — The Personalist Structure 00:09:04 — The Autocrat's Incentives 00:12:09 — The Boyar's Incentives 00:13:34 — COMPETENCE, REFORM & THE RUSSIAN ARMY 00:13:48 — The Post-Soviet Decline 00:14:18 — Yeltsin's Praetorians 00:15:23 — Grachev 00:16:55 — The Serdyukov Reforms 00:19:29 — Rebellion & Replacement 00:20:14 — Remember Sergei? 00:21:14 — The Shoigu Years 00:22:19 — Sergei's Failures 00:23:25 — Sergei's Successes 00:24:54 — DUPLICATION & EMPIRE BUILDING 00:25:05 — Efficiency is Sleek 00:25:54 — Empire Building & Divided Rule 00:26:37 — Building an Ideal Military 00:27:44 — German Military Feudalism 00:28:56 — Waffen SS or HEER 00:29:14 — An Organisational Melee 00:31:11 — FRAGMENTATION IN RUSSIA (DRAMATIS PERSONAE) 00:31:17 — The Regular Army 00:31:49 — Rosgvardia 00:32:59 — The DNR & LNR 00:34:59 — Russian Law 00:35:49 — Kadyrov 00:37:25 — Kadyrovtsy 00:37:55 — Loyal to Whom? 00:38:38 — Yevgeniy Prigozhin 00:40:29 — "Volunteer" Units 00:41:22 — Other Players? 00:42:16 — The Costs of Fragmentation 00:43:53 — COORDINATION & COHESION 00:44:05 — There is no "Team" 00:45:12 — IJA: The Rivalry 00:46:07 — IJA: Organisation 00:46:44 — IJA: Coordination 00:47:51 — The MoD v Wagner 00:49:51 — Duelling Narratives 00:50:54 — The Narrative? 00:53:03 — Meanwhile, in Wagner World 00:55:10 — DIRECT "COMPETITION" 00:55:17 — Unit "Friction" 00:56:12 — Rogozin 00:58:59 — POLITICAL OBJECTIVES 00:59:25 — When Politics Trumps Military Logic 01:00:52 — THE AGGREGATED IMPACT 01:00:59 — An Ending (To This Act) 01:02:00 — CAN IT BE FIXED? 01:02:08 — This is Not Unique 01:02:55 — Antidotes and Controls 01:04:13 — The Russian Issue 01:05:35 — Cultural Factors 01:07:57 — Conclusions